Predictions for 2008 - Part I

With Spring training winding up, and all teams building towards opening day, how many Aussies can we expect to see starting the season in the bigs? What sort of game time can they expect to get? Who are some of the current minor leaguers who might get some time in the bigs this year? Part 1 of my season preview looks at some players who have not yet cracked the majors, or who got their first call up in 2007, and some who have seen a fair bit of time in the majors.

When looking at who is likely to play MLB this year, there are a few things to consider. Obviously their form from last year is important, and then there are the stats from spring training (for what they are worth). But also important are some roster considerations - who are they competing against, how many spots are available, what is their contract status? For many Aussies, these factors are every bit as important as their own performance.

Craig Anderson - LHP - Baltimore Orioles

Anderson was originally signed by the Mariners in 1999. Since then he has steadily worked his way through the minors, making double-A in 2002 (when he was named to the Texas league post-season all star team), and triple-A in 2003. He was signed by the Orioles in 2005, and has seen a lot of time in double-A and triple-A through their organisation. He pitched for Australia in the World Baseball Classic in 2006. In 2007/2008 he played in the Dominican Republic winter league for Aguilas Cibaenas - who won the tournament.

Anderson is a left-handed starter, who participated in the Orioles spring training as a non-roster invitee.

Anderson had a pretty good 2007. He began the year at double-A Bowie Baysox, where he went 5-1 in 13 starts. He was then called up to Norfolk Tides triple-A where he went 7-3 from 15 starts, with a respectable ERA of 2.98. He got 57 strikeouts over 96.2 innings and gave up 16 walks and 85 hits (1.05 WHIP). He was named player of the month in August, when he went 2-1 with 28 strikeouts and a 2.93 ERA. Over the year, his 12 wins were the most by any pitcher in the Orioles' minor league organisation.

Anderson didn't get a lot of game time during spring. The Orioles are trying to rebuild their starting rotation, with some wholesale change taking place after they traded Erik Bedard to the Mariners. They boast a pretty inexperienced and youthful rotation, with their best probably Jeremy Guthrie who went 7-5 from 26 starts last year, with a 3.70 ERA and 123 strikeouts over 175 IP. His WHIP was 1.21. While Cabrera, Guthrie, Loewen and Traschel got plenty of starts over spring, Anderson was given a role in the bullpen.

Anderson appeared in 2 games, pitching 1 inning in each. He gave up 2 hits, and got three strikeouts, but he did blow one save, although it was not an earned run. Difficult to make much of these stats really. Considering his minor league career his been largely as a starter, 2 innings of relief work at spring training probably doesn't mean much. However, the Orioles have cut Anderson from the major league camp. So it looks like it will be another start in the minors for Anderson, possibly at triple-A.

So it looks like Anderson could get a shot at the majors this year. With the Orioles rebuilding after losing Bedard, there is likely to be some opportunities given. If he can match his minor league form from last year, he will be a good chance of seeing some time. And he could get a helping hand if 4th/5th starters dont perform, or get injured. My prediction is that Anderson could get a call up mid-to late-season as a starter. Depending on the bullpen performance, he could also be a candidate as a lefty reliever.

Grant Balfour - RHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Grant Balfour played his first major league game on 22 July 2001, for the Minnesota Twins. He gained some decent experience with the Twins through 2003 and 2004, including some appearances in the post season. He had some injury problems through 2005 and 2006, and spent all of 2006 on the DL for the Cincinatti Reds. He pitched in a number of rehab assignments in the minors, and was picked up by the Brewers from waivers on 5 October 2006. On 27 July 2007, the Brewers traded Balfour to the Rays, and he made 22 appearances. He finished 2007 with 24.2 innings pitched, 30 strikeouts, 30 hits, 20 walks, and an ERA of 7.81.

Balfour has turned in a pretty effective performance during spring training. He has pitched 9.1 innings over 8 appearances, fanning 7 while allowing 4 walks and 6 hits (WHIP 1.099), for an ERA of 2.89. The biggest concern is that 2 of the 6 hits were home runs.

The Rays have settled their starting rotation, and are now looking to finetune their bullpen. It seems that Balfour is competing with JP Howell and Scott Dohrmann for a spot. Howell is a 24-year old lefty who made 10 starts for the Rays through 2007 while splitting time in triple-A. Over 51 innings as a starter at TB, Howell struck out 49, gave up 21 walks and 45 hits (1.29 WHIP)to post a 7.59 ERA. Dohrmann is a 30-year old right handed reliever who played as one of the Rays' set up men in 2007. Over 32.2 innings he struck out 26, gave up 18 walks and 29 hits (1.48 WHIP) to post a 3.31 ERA.

Both Howell and Dohrmann have had significant opportunities to impress this spring. Howell has posted some good numbers during spring training. He has pitched 9 innings, for 8 strikeouts, 2 walks and 9 hits (ERA of 1.00). He seems to have filled more of an extended relief role, while Balfour tends to pitch only one and a bit innings. Dohrmann has been less effective, taking 2 losses, giving up 13 hits and 4 walks over 9 innings. He has struck out 8 and has a (9.00) ERA.

While the Rays have not locked anything up yet, Balfour clearly has a very good chance to make it into the Rays bullpen for opening day. Rays' manager Joe Maddon recently said Balfour's last two outings were 'the best I've ever seen him', and he has been happy with his pitch location. These are good signs coming from the manager at this time of the year. It won't be easy, especially as Dohrmann has pitched for the Rays a bit more than Balfour. However, if he can continue pitching the way he has been, such as his excellent outing against the Yankees the other day , he stands an excellent chance of making the Rays' pen for opening day.

My prediction is that Balfour is a solid contender for the Rays' opening day bullpen. If he does not make it, he will likely pitch in triple-A, and I would expect he will see some time in the majors this year.

Rich Thompson - RHP - LA Angels

Thompson made his MLB debut in 2007, pitching relief in 7 games for the Angels. Prior to that he pitched in 21 games for the Arkansas Travellers double-A side, pitching 49.1 innings (he started 3 games) for an ERA of 2.01. He gave up 34 hits, 14 walks, and struck out 50. (0.98 WHIP). He then pitched as a reliever in 16 games for triple-A Salt Lake City. He allowed 17 hits, 6 walks over 24.2 innings (0.95 WHIP) and struck out 32. His ERA was 2.19.

Thompson's 90+mph fastball and his excellent curve have allowed him to dominate through the various levels of minor league baseball. He was also a member of the 2004 Olympics silver medal winning team. He also pitched 2/3 of an inning in the 2007 futures game.

The Angels have some established closers in Justin Speier and Scot Shields. But, Thompson has shown his abilities as either a reliever or a closer. In his 5 outings through spring, he has pitched 8.1 innings, allowing only 7 hits and 3 runs. He has struck out 7. He is yet to give up a walk. These figures give him a 3.24 ERA, with a WHIP of 0.86. On top of this, he has converted 2 of 3 save opportunities.

Also vying for a spot in the Angels' pen are Jason Bulger and non-roster invitee Darren O'Day. Like Thompson, Bulger pitched for the Angels in late 2007. Over 6 appearances in relief he posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Meanwhile, O'Day has had a very impressive spring, posting a 1.23 ERA over 14.2 innings of work, with 10 hits, 1 walk and 13 strikeouts.

Things must be neck and neck between these three candidates. I think that O'Day's status as a non-roster player must reduce his stock, despite his great figures this spring. Between Thompson and Bulger, things are very close. Thompson's minor leauge figures and consistent performance this spring may be enough to get him over the line.

Regardless of whether he makes it to the opening day roster, Thompson's experience and minor league performances, should get him some significant time in the majors in 2008.

Stay tuned for more 2008 Predictions coming soon...